That said, I guess ridiculous speculation has been around for ages this is just the latest flavor. Hes helped thousands of people improve their lives. Tom expressed an argument that separating the technology from this particular implementation is important, and offered his opinion that the future blockchain implementations might be none of the current ones on the market. China is also a leader in renewables space. I can 100 percent guarantee you that my mom and pop will still be using fiat paper, and so will I, and so will the worlds governments. I have to disagree with one of your points here: in a worst-case scenario, if you have enough gold, you may be able to beat it between some rocks to make a serviceable frying pan. It doesnt matter if it goes to $100 trillion per coin or per fingernail the underlying speculation is bullshit, which is why it needs to be stopped. Cryptocurrencies are extremely risky. About purse.io: Do you have to pay the transaction fee to deposit the BTC to escrow? If the currency is highly valued, he would do well to keep hold of it! Spend $40,000 a year x 25 = $1,000,000 to be FI/spend 4% of $1,000,000 = $40,000 to spend each year. Ms. Frugal Asian Finance Also, for the first time in history, it will soon be possible to make millions of sub-cent transactions efficiently without any significant fees. The security of the Bitcoin blockchain. It a high-tech form of protest. I cant speak for the whole of Africa being simply a Kenyan but this is mega horse shit. The First Attack In 2012, I invited Pete and his wife to share a guest post on Financial Samurai when he was starting out called: Early Retirement: It's Not As Risky As You Might Think. Because reasons, technology and internet! Een of andere blog . You know what else they have at bars? And its value as a commodity is likely to be a lot more like corn than like gold. Read your history, it happens occasionally. Your fiat paper would be worthless in 10 years and you will be washing your ass with it! This might be normal for an era such as this, where the growth is coming from real tech companies instead of widget makers. Probably. Or the cars people use to haul that stuff then. The very definition of an unsophisticated investor is Being more willing to buy something, the more its price goes up.. In a practical sense, this . Time will tell. Lets be frank. Very good article! That is why our civilization used that rather than perishables or iron. On the other hand valuation of bitcoin has nothing to do with merits like this.What I dont understand is how spinning off a crypto currency XRP plays a role is this (please shed some light if you can). January 2, 2018, 6:46 pm. Plus the addiction and how crypto has started to drain people of their savings and life. How else should people behave? People are genuinely mad at me for calling out this speculative aspect (note that I did not criticize blockchain at all, just the idea of uninformed people betting on future price increases for the arbitrary coins). The real winners of the gold rush were the ones who sold shovels. gov issued currencies = Human trust and cooperation. Couldnt have said it any better myself. Do these 2 billion unbanned people 1) have internet access and 2) access to the initial bitcoin to get in on this internet money? We still need banks for other forms of financial services such as loans, investments, business services, etc.. Will Bitcoin replace that, too? It often seems like there is a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says something bad about Bitcoin. Tim Beck Good post. This way you will be truly rich in 5 years. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. Even though it really is nothing but cyber reality. Its not an investment. !, What is money? Do you have any stats to share? You should have just invested in winning lottery tickets instead of bitcoin, they have had a much much higher rate of return. January 2, 2018, 5:53 pm, Dear Mr. Mustache, I am so sorry you had to write this at all. A real, usable currency CANNOT have such huge fluctuations. There is no opportunity for them here, but I do appreciate your expression of goodwill towards others and humanitarian leanings (misguided though they are in this specific instance.). With cryptocurrencies, you are literally betting that world governments, the G20, all major banks, The United Nations, financial institutions, exchanges, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, and all existing fiat currencies will change as radically as retail shopping has in the past 25 years. I agree Jay. Slaves to banks and few elites? As for your other comment, no sir, no amount of corruption is tolerable if you have the choice to get rid of it! You WILL be wrong. Michael After all, the ONLY thing that gives a fiat money its value is what someone else is willing to give you for it. Further more rants about the skyrocketing cost of housing and how many people cannot afford their mortgages, with further people saying mortgage payments wont matter because those people can just sell for more when the payments become a problem. Gold has always been considered a commodity of high value. Bitcoin and altcoins consume a ridiculous amount of energy. That is wrong. There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. There is no wealth and no trade without these two things, so you might as well go all-in and trust people. Here's the one I like: 25x the annual amount you spend/4% of your assets. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. Research further. For those of us who live in USA and use the USD for our currency, what does it mean to trust that government, which is currently breaching 19 TRILLION dollars in debt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States) while simultaneously reducing its revenue stream (tax breaks for everyone). While I was in Kenya, the central bank had capped rates at 14%. As the people in Greece and Iceland found out, along with people in many other countries. This is really useful for me to hone my thinking about the topic. Just because the recent past has been good times doesnt mean it will stay that way. Take that money and RUN! Tulips anyone? Why not somebody else's fingernail clippings? Its like Winston Churchill said: Gold is the silliest, most irrational thing you could ever use as money. Of course, I doubt we are already at the 10%. One reason why everyone is piling money into BTC and other crypto might be because the stock market is way too expensive right now. Listen on: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube. Everything thats happening in the crypto space is just so normal as you would expect investors struggling to get the price right for something beyond the control of regulation. It needs to expand with the supply of goods and services in the world, otherwise we end up with deflation and hoarding. Inexpensive computers thousands of times more powerful than the best you could buy for $10K in 1990. You can buy puts in OSTK, MARA, GROW, OSTK and RIOT. Enjoy your crash. Because hydro acts as a massive built-in storage in both the short term (ms, seconds) and long term ( hours, days, Im only a mediocre computer scientist. Episode 496: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - Part 1 by Mr. Money Mustache (Bitcoin Crypto & Financial Independence). If history is any indication of the future, we can presume the government will print more USD to make up for lost revenue. In this way, dollars are the ultimate speculation. This puts USD straight into the bank the Federal Goverment and allows paying of debt. Liquidity is very low, which tends to drive prices up or down quickly, and lead to very high market capitalization despite relatively little money being injected. Eenvoudig leven . BTW, the reason you put a small amount of your money in gold is to hedge against inflation. And then follow that thread all the way back to the fact that the future blockchain(s) all of these future uses are built on are going to be continuations of the most valuable blockchains of today because valuable blockchains are a prerequisite for the data integrity required for high value use cases. Plus $20 to run the transaction. I agree with MMMs eloquent outlining of the major concerns with investing in cryptocurrencies. One of the 3 points MMM stated it needs. Thank you! How much of your net worth is in this investment? Could you please tell us what you are invested in and when you got in? Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. . Gold has the 2 most important properties to make it function as money, scarcity and intrinsic value. But anyway.you need a little imagination to see the value it has for the first world, because it has to arise from something other than a replacement for something preexisting. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/no-bitcoin-is-likely-not-going-to-consume-all-the-worlds-energy-in-2020.html, Biglaw Investor Bitcoins will never degrade over time, your fingernails degrade. Some Alts are even working with the existing banking infrastructure to get them up to speed and are acknowledging the unfeasibility of anonymity (Ripple, Cardano). Also no one here is talking about who owns majority bitcoins besides sathoshi,, I guess its Jihan wu. An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? Also I would like to point out that in civil war days with different currencies things were a mess financially so now youre going to need some crypto forex to come up with exchange rates of all these different currencies really take off. Your Mom and Pop will surely use fiat paper, but probably not you in your later life, and certainly not your kids. To keep things non-promotional, please use a real name or nickname(not Blogger @ My Blog Name). I also invested in a bitcoin two years ago, and paid off all my debt with it. All they can do is to ban and stop the exchanges. My disagreements w the article summarized: Im selling because I agree that cryptocurrencies have entered the bubble phase, but when it comes to theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. Jay Holden https://www.amazon.com/giftcardscams/b?ie=UTF8&node=15435487011, Ryan Schaap As platforms. They cant use these gift cards. Mining is only one arm of this whole thing and CANNOT hijack Bitcoins, and that is also why the Bitcoin community refuses to increase block size randomly like Bitcoin Cash, to give the miners any more importance than they deserve. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. Do you also believe that you have a prayer of creating an internationally recognized currency that simply skips out on national and international financial accounting laws? They have been making a killing. Except of course, for all the others. As such, its an awful means of trade. The reason that people have never owned their own money as you inelegantly put it, is because there is no full faith and credit under this model. 3 years and 1 week later. This black one here is only $1,000,000,000,000,000. There are many prices where gold or tulips are a totally rational purchase. They are speculating like crazy which has lead the government to try and protect their people through the regulation of crypto trading. Now, with that moral sermon out of the way, we might as well talk about why Bitcoin has become such a big thing, so we can separate the usefulness of the underlying technology called Blockchain, from the mania about how people have turned Bitcoin it into a big dumb lottery. Its a win-win situation.. But thats just the start. MMM, Internet has pretty much destroyed every industry it has pitted against. David Wendelken On top of that, wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of living. No one is suggesting that investing in mining is a good idea. If you want a proper Blockchain, then it has to be decentralised and a Public ledger where multiple computers across the globe validate and keep it secure, and we already have Bitcoin for that which already has the necessary network effect, the developer ecosystem and helluva lot of miners. Sounds like a bubble to me. Stop Ironing Shirts Bitcoin values are delusional. Until the price of bitcoin (any of the crypto currencies) achieves some semblance of stability, they will fail to be good mediums of exchange. Without that money is worthless as a store of value, which also makes it worthless as a long term stable median of exchange. Dit is je geld nu waard als je een jaar geleden Bitcoin, goud of andere assets kocht. I doubt you really believe this is going to overthrow all of our current financial system. Mr. Money Mustache on Twitter: "I dunno man. Blockchain is just a computer protocol, which allows two people (or machines) to do transactions even if they dont trust each other or the network between them. People then go on to say, If theres even a ONE PERCENT CHANCE that this happens, Bitcoins are severely undervalued and they should really be worth, like, at least a quadrillion dollars each!!. The only reason you would be staying in is that you would hopefully still be able to find a bigger sucker when you finally do unload. I agree with most of this article (rather a rant, eh? This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. Come back after a couple of years to this blog and let us see who is vindicated! Some guy on the internet But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. If you arent selling people around you on the big dream, you probably wont make as high of return. The cryptocurrency is the glue that holds the system together. While cryptos are new, they also dont meet the needs of traditional cash flow analysis but for a new asset class but just because its new doesnt mean its a bad idea. Said every speculation sucker since the 17th Century. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and maybe everyone that posts here about how wonderful Bitcoin is will be minted a Bitcoin millionaire and will lock in those profits can we remain sane and humble on the other side? He or she still determines the current market price. Ive yet to find anyone who has. It seems like youre advocating for scenario #2. Video compression tech. Vijay, Let me know when you find a buyer for your $70k fingernail clippings. Overall, it is just as likely to go up as it is down, especially in the near term, and is best to avoid all together unless you just love gambling and dont care about losing money. The internet. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. Cryptocurrency could be the proverbial cure for cancer, but if its made illegal or heavily regulated through prudent or reactionary legislation (YMMV) it doesnt really matter, does it? Most people understand nothing apart from my friend bought some BTC for $5k last month and now theyre worth $20k. The value of a blockchain is its immutability, derived from its decentralization. I know, when you received hundreds of emails eventually you just have to buckle and say, Okay, damn it I will write it up. Mr. Money Mustache and his then-wife retired at the age of 30 with a net worth of $600,000. Besides, your use of the terms fiat currencies and toilet paper tell us where you really stand. Bitcoin didnt fly off the charts until a couple of months ago, after (maybe) finding itself in the perfect storm to take a bubble to biblical proportions. The big players in China use hydroelectric power. Pete and his wife retired at. NOTHING HAPPENS! Its a little like taking out the garbage. But, dont you initially invest money into Bitcoin thru your bank? BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. Mr. Frugal Toque Amazing. We will have to see if that new blockchain style will win out. Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. It also has technological demand. January 3, 2018, 5:48 am. It is a good. BigTasty1212 Regular money has nothing behind it either. Well, that is not what we are discussing are we? Basic Economics Vijay. What if you want it for yourself, or have customers or distributors that do? Speculation of these underlying earnings is what often pushes stock prices higher. Which is fine, but this trust-less nature of Bitcoin is what the early adopters valued. Etrade is going to trade bitcoin futures. Not a penny was wasted. if there was something I wanted to buy online from another country and they didnt take the dollar for whatever reason its an OK solution. If I lie to you and take your money, thats one thing. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. But yes, I would not invest in crypto currency. I could definitely sell these for more later. And this, MMM There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. . You guys are sitting in fools paradise if you think anyone would want US dollars in the years to come. Complaints and insults generally wont make the cut here, but by all means write them on your own blog! And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. But boy, are you wrong on this one. Here is one interesting chart among many that shows exactly that: Even things that can be good investments can be in a bubble. How many do you need? I have these lovely tulip bulbs for sale, please PM me. For just $2 you could be a multimillionaire. Certianly seems like Vijay has some vested interests in Bitcoin..it is pretty obvious. And its back to 12.5K in two days. Congratulations on your earnings. Because when the Northeaster blows through my town and knocks down a power line, I want to pay the 15 year old kid who knocked on my door and shoveled my driveway $30 bucks. People will release new ones all the time and people invest in them, not because they will ever be useful but because they expect the price to skyrocket. I couldnt find anything indicating countries are using bitcoin as a reserve currency. it is as simple as that. This is so weak. Because I advocate something, I am not raving Mad! Peter Mevoin The amount of people who have posted on /r/personalfinance this year who sold crypto, then bought back in, and lost big, is astounding. Investing means buying an asset that actually creates products and services and cashflow for an extended period of time. Vijay, what MMM is saying is that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin cannot presently operate as currencies. So, I use bitcoin to buy stuff with the gift cards from these people. I want to know will it make my day to day life easier? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, The Wealthy Accountant If people are creating an bubble out of it, people is stupid, not bitcoin. Bro, we get ityou want to wipe your butt with germ-infested cash. Blockchain technology may do that too. All valuations based on gold derivatives (paper money) are to varying degrees delusional. Bitcoin is not stupid per se. Mr. Butler MMM calls Bitcoin Stupid and all these things as some kind of Ponzi Scheme! Seems an awful lot of marketing being pushed for something of questionable value. Big banks get crushed, millions of americans were underwater on their homes and forces to foreclose and then they get a bailout from the US of A paid for by yours truly, the average american tax payer. Liked. That means over the next 2 years, the Shiller P/E will be rolling out some of the terrible earnings numbers from the global financial crisis. The Cryptocurrency bubble is really a replay of the past: A good percentage of Humans are prone to mass delusions which lead to irrational behavior. TO_Ont A boy named Sue So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. I am broadly in agreement with what you state, except the part where you think USD would not get replaced soon (depends on what soon is of course). Note that if you remove any of these essential elements, youve made the system effectively worthless. We dont buy average cars or average homes we buy older cars, and smaller homes to cut costs and live a modest life. Herd behavior? January 15, 2018, 4:00 pm. Ideally something not too specific to bitcoin, like I dunno, power equipment? There is a reason that central banks own most of the wotlds gold. MMM has been writing quality PF content for years. If not, you may want to think about selling., Scott Nicholson So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. If FIRE is your goal, Id get out. Research Ethereum further. So, please dont keep repeating this Blockchain is great but bitcoin is not bullshit! The poorest in Sub-Saharan Africa earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do. January 16, 2018, 4:53 pm. January 23, 2018, 12:50 am, Why Mr. Money Mustache is wrong and Nassim Taleb is right about Bitcoin: https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614. ..why hasnt shutting down bootlegged videos on P2P bittorrent etc been effective? Were human, so human. When you make this kind of purchase, which you should never do, you arespeculating,which is not a useful activity. If I buy and hold a share of S&P500 ETF for the rest of my life, I will earn back the share price in quarterly dividends eventually. January 3, 2018, 12:06 am, Sounds like a classic case of sour grapes to me :-), Cameron We clearly see them in Africa, Middle East and Latin America. Unlike gold or tulip bulbs or cigarettes or salt, no one desires dollars as goods in and of themselves. Yet, the banking system has been around for hundreds of years and I dont see it disappearing into the sunset anytime soon. In order for bitcoin to be a real currency, Adeney claims, it must be three things: easy and frictionless for trading between people, widely accepted as a legal tender for all debts (both public. Is it speculation, sure, but its no different that speculating on the future price of a stock, or oil, or the rental market. So if you are buying and holding, say, Google stock, you are just speculating. Satoshi, the founder, sits on 10% but he has never spent a single cent. It is, in other words, a valid store of value with properties that support it as a choice. If THAT does happen (BTC=100K), it will prove once more that BTC is not a currency at all. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? January 4, 2018, 2:23 pm. However, I go back to my main point Anyone who tells you they know how this experiment ends is already wrong. It is when stock prices stay the same in nominal terms but everything else rises in price around them, effectively masking the very real stock market crash through inflation. And a currency thats not used for transactions isnt a real currency. 3) If you are retired, with enough to last you the rest of your life even in cash, then you have eliminated most risks (market crash etc) but not all- the currency you hold your wealth in can fall greatly. January 2, 2018, 6:47 pm. I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. 36 terawatt is not something taken easily from renewables at current rates.. Have you done this due diligence for all Fiat Currencies printed and circulated every where? Just one, just $2, and its (hopefully) only a sliver of your net worth. 2) Prices rise so much that earnings increase while stock prices remain the same. When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? December 10, 2018, 5:45 pm, Dang! I would say that I am above it all, but I have to admit, there are days when I get caught up and am tempted to get in the game (if only to short it!). On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. Grow to say 10 trillion, or have ) a company that produces and sells something actually... 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